14
Nov
2010

Now in color

GO BEARS! (Just needed to get that off my chest. I’ll post later about the happiest I’ve ever been after a Cal loss).

But LOOK LOOK LOOK! I made my first original wordpress theme! It’s kind of corn-ball. But I like the colors. I still have a little work to do to make it look right in IE, but I’ll fix that later.

Um…. that’s it!

09
Nov
2010

NCAA Football Rankings – Week 10

TCU solidified their place in my rankings. Oregon is still blowing everyone out of the water. Cal was dropped from the rankings this week, which I found interesting. My system noted that Cal should have won by more (not knowing about Riley being out).

Bowl eligibility is becoming a big deal. My rankings places Oregon State at #11 in the country right now, but predicts they will not end the season bowl eligible. And in fact, my projections only have four bowl eligible teams! Oregon, Standfurd, Arizona, and Cal (barely). (USC would have been eligible if not for the sanctions)

Continue Reading

06
Nov
2010

Twitter-pated

So I bit the bullet and started a Twitter account. I’m officially @Troatie, but I don’t have any plans on tweeting away. Some day I will, but until then, I wouldn’t go following me just yet. Basically, I got the account cause there are people I want to follow. Now I just need to remember who they are.

Some day I’ll have a job. Following that day, someday, I’ll have a smartphone (or at least an educated phone) that will allow me to tweet on the fly. Then I could see myself actually tweeting. When/if that day comes, I’ll probably throw up the tweets in a widget on the sidebar here.

In other news, the Pac-12 schedule for 2011 was released, and also the Pac-12 a layout of who plays who for the next 8 years. The weirdest news for Cal? None of our OOC games have been scheduled, and we have back-to-back Thursday night games at Oregon and “home” (in AT&T park) against USC.

03
Nov
2010

NCAA Football Rankings – Week 9

I feel just sick for Kevin Riley. I mean this guy took a lot of crap from Cal fans over the years, but as Ted Miller points out, he is 5th all-time in touchdown passes, and 6th all-time in offensive yards at Cal. Here’s to a great future for Riley, wherever life takes him from here.

That all said, it should be pointed out that none of my numbers/rankings below reflect injuries of any kind (such as Riley or Jake Locker). So they look a little ridiculous at time. Oh well.

(Oh by-the-way, my numbers say that Utah is going to beat TCU this weekend!)

Continue Reading

26
Oct
2010

NCAA Football Rankings – Week 8

After being such a sad bear last week, I’m a very happy bear. My computer and the algorithm I programmed into it seem to like Cal too. They have the Bears ranked #9 in the country. HAHAHA. Part of that, is by my metrics (which are admittedly flawed) say that Cal has had the ninth toughest schedule in the country so far.

Also, if I haven’t made it clear in the past, let me make it clear: wins and loses aren’t taken into account in my formulas. At least not directly. The weight is given to teams that score more points than the other (after a 3 point home field advantage is adjusted for! meaning my system assumes Cal beats Arizona on a neutral field) and also it looks at whether the team A scored more or less than team B’s average opponent, and whether team A held team B to more or less points than usual. That’s that whole OAAD and DAAO thing I mentioned a couple weeks ago. That’s why you can have 7-1 Alabama ahead of 8-0 Auburn, and 4-3 California ahead of 7-0 Missouri. Cal has had blowout wins that counteract the blowout loses.

I plan on doing a whole bunch of things at the end of the regular season to examine Cal’s season. Maybe for the hell of it, I’ll run my numbers again using wins-loses like the BCS computers are required to do.

I randomly just checked, and I have WSU (who I predict will go winless in the Pac-10) #54 out of 120 in the country! It’s things like that make the Pac-10 the best conference in the nation (and Jeff Sagarin agrees with me).

Oh and I added Pac-10 bowl predictions at the bottom!

Continue Reading

23
Oct
2010

NCAA Football Ranks – Week 7

Oops. I totally forgot to post these earlier. But since they’re based on computer info, they are unbiased by the current state of the Cal game and the result of the UCLA-Oregon game on Thursday. I was gonna add bowl predictions this week, but I want to get back to watching the Cal game. So here’s just the rankings.

Continue Reading

20
Oct
2010

Ranking Weezer’s Studio Albums

So I’ve been listening to Weezer’s new album Hurley for a couple weeks now and I’m really digging it. This is their third effort in as many years, and it really is groovy. That got me wondering where this fits in among their other studio albums. So here is ranking of the Weezer albums as I see it. The only disclaimer with this list is that I’m a Weezer fan, so my opinion is biased. Oh also, on the more recent albums, I own the extended versions. Now it may or may not be fair to rate an album based on the extra songs, but that’s what I’m gonna do.

Continue Reading

11
Oct
2010

NCAA Football Rankings – Week 6

Another football week has past. And those pesky Golden Bears put up a great game against UCLA. Sure, the passing game needs lots of work, but the defense and running game will keep us in games. And for their efforts, my ranking system has placed the Bears right behind the Crimson Tide at #6 in the nation (which includes jumping ahead of Stanford!).

Other things of interest include the fact that my top three are the same as the national top three in the polls (even though my is based on numbers). That Nevada team is sitting pretty at #4, and S. Carolina is still behind Alabama at #9. The Pac-10 is still dominating the average score, making it the best conference.

I’ve added one more thing to the rankings. “SOS Rank” and “SOS Pnts” refer to the strength-of-schedule. The points are the average points of opponents so far and the rank is the order in difficulty. This does not include games that haven’t been played yet. So for example, Oregon State is ranked first giving it the hardest schedule in the country. If the Pac-10 remains the top conference, Oregon State’s schedule is just going to look even harder as the year continues. Cal currently has had the 5th toughest schedule so far. Also, the strength of schedule will naturally change from week to week as we learn more about each team and each team plays more games on it’s schedule. (Oh, and I got the idea to look at my SOS numbers while glancing at the Sagarin computer rankings, which interestingly enough has Cal ranked 9th in the country (16th if you can’t use scores but only wins/loses which is the rank he provides the BCS with. Also Sagarin’s conference rankings also put the Pac-10 on top.)

Last thing I want to mention: My predictions last week were a little hit-and-miss (which doesn’t suprise me). It predicted the big wins for Cal and ASU. It did predict Stanfurd and Oregon would win, but not how close those games would be. And naturally, it botched the Oregon St-Arizona game. But I press on with the predictions at the bottom.

Continue Reading

06
Oct
2010

Year of the pitcher?

So the MLB regular season is over. Sara and I went to Seattle last weekend to watch the As take on the Mariner’s on Saturday and spend some time with friends. It was awesome.

My friend Tina brought up the fact that the media has been calling this “The Year of the Pitcher” and other than the perfect games, the title might be slightly unwarranted. If you don’t know, a “perfect game” for a pitcher (and the rest of the defense) is a one in which the opposing team never reaches first base. This includes all 6 ways to reach first base: a hit, a walk, an error, a balk, being hit by a pitch , and a dropped strike three. This has officially happened only 18 times in the modern era. Two of those games were pitched this year by Oakland’s Dallas Braden, and Philadelphia’s Roy Halladay. Unofficially, a third one was thrown by Armando Galarraga (his last out was incorrectly called safe at first). Five no-hitters (including the 2 perfect games) were also thrown this year.

How does this stack up? Well let’s just compare to the last few years:

Perfect Games

2010: 2
2009: 1
2008: 0
2007: 0 (the last one before this was pitched by The Big Unit’s in 2004).

No-hitters

2010: 5
2009: 2
2008: 2
2007: 3

Top 5 most wins

2010: 21, 21, 20, 19, 19
2009: 19, 19, 19, 19, 17
2008: 22, 22, 20, 20, 18
2007: 20, 19, 19, 19, 19

Top 5 ERA

2010: 2.27, 2.30, 2.33, 2.42, 2.44
2009: 2.16, 2.24, 2.48, 2.49, 2.60
2008: 2.53, 2.54, 2.62, 2.78, 2.85
2007: 2.54, 3.01, 3.01, 3.03, 3.06

Top 5 Number of Complete Games

2010: 9, 7, 7, 6, 5
2009: 9, 6, 4, 4, 4
2008: 9, 7, 5, 4, 3
2007: 7, 4, 4, 3, 3

Really there are endless amounts of stats we could look at. But it looks like the title kind of fits. But really the perfect games and other no-nos are the only things that warrant the title. But I like pitching battles, so I hope they’re all right. Oh, and just for fun I’ll throw one last stat up:

Top 5 in Homeruns

2010: 54, 42, 39, 38, 38
2009: 47, 46, 45, 44, 40
2008: 48, 40, 38, 37, 37
2007: 54, 50, 47, 46, 40

04
Oct
2010

NCAA Football Rankings – Week 5

Here’s the rankings after the 5th week. Oregon is all the way up to number 1! My ranking system really looks like I have a Pac-10 bias. And thinking about it, maybe I have an offensive power bias (although defensive ability plays a key part in my system), which would be a Pac-10 bias. We’ll see how it plays out.

Other intersting Pac-10 notes: UCLA fell 8 spots in the rankings after a win against WSU in which they allowed the cougars to score 28 points (the most they’ve scored all season).

My thoughts at this point is that teams like Cal and Arizona State are being rewarded for having played (albeit losing to) highly ranked teams. This sort of makes sense, but really. I’m confident that the formulas will work themselves out as more games are played.

Oh, and because these rankings articles aren’t long enough, I figured I’d actually show my predictions for the coming Pac-10 games!

Continue Reading

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »

Blog Archives

Recent Bookmarks

Books I’m Reading

Latest Tweets