19
Nov
2010

Bowl Eligibility

Before the UCLA baby bears take on the Huskies of Washington tonight, I thought it appropriate to look at the Pac-10 bowl picture. As of right now, three teams — Oregon, Stanfurd, and Arizona — are bowl eligible. Three teams — Arizona State, Washington State, and due to NCAA sanctions, USC — cannot achieve bowl eligibility. That leaves four more teams, including my beloved Golden Bears, that still have some work to do if they even have a hope of making a bowl.


So here are the lines for those teams this weekend as of now:
Washington -2 over UCLA
Stanfurd -6.5 over Cal
USC -3 over Oregon State

And my calculations/guesses for the remaining games:
Arizona St -17 over UCLA
USC -9.5 over UCLA
Stanfurd -20.5 over Oregon State
Oregon -25.5 over Oregon State
Washington St -1.5 over Washington
California -22.5 over Washington

Washington needs to win all 3 of it’s remaining games, UCLA and Oregon State need to win 2 of their 3 remaining games, and Cal needs to win 1 of it’s final 2. There is some crossover, and if you think of all the scenarios, you’ll notice that it is possible that none of the teams will gain bowl eligibility, and it’s also possible for all four of these teams to make bowl eligibility.

Let’s look at each teams chances (based on some super fancy math):
UCLA has a 44.2% chance against UW
UCLA has a 10.7% chance against ASU
UCLA has a 24.4% chance against USC
OSU has a 41.3% chance against USC
OSU has a 6.7% chance against Furd
OSU has a 3.1% chance against UO
UW has a 55.8% chance against UCLA
UW has a 5.0% chance against Cal
UW has a 45.6% chance against WSU
Cal has a 31.7% chance against Furd
Cal has a 95.0% chancse against UW

What does that all mean?
UCLA has a 15.8% chance of becoming bowl eligible.
Oregon State has a 4.1% chance of becoming bowl eligible.
Washington has a 1.3% chance of becoming bowl eligible.
Cal has a 96.6% chance of becoming bowl eligible.

GO BEARS!

  • http://trent.marginallystable.com Trent Russi

    I forgot to mention that if ASU gets 2 wins, they’ll be 6-6. However, they played 2 FCS teams and can use only one of those wins toward bowl eligibility (i.e. they needed 7 wins including those two FCS wins). That said, with the bowl picture for the Pac-10 looking grim, many sports writers think that ASU could get an appeal from the NCAA with only 6 wins. If that were the case, they still have a shot at a bowl, but they have to go through USC and Arizona to do it.

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