26
Oct
2010

NCAA Football Rankings – Week 8

After being such a sad bear last week, I’m a very happy bear. My computer and the algorithm I programmed into it seem to like Cal too. They have the Bears ranked #9 in the country. HAHAHA. Part of that, is by my metrics (which are admittedly flawed) say that Cal has had the ninth toughest schedule in the country so far.

Also, if I haven’t made it clear in the past, let me make it clear: wins and loses aren’t taken into account in my formulas. At least not directly. The weight is given to teams that score more points than the other (after a 3 point home field advantage is adjusted for! meaning my system assumes Cal beats Arizona on a neutral field) and also it looks at whether the team A scored more or less than team B’s average opponent, and whether team A held team B to more or less points than usual. That’s that whole OAAD and DAAO thing I mentioned a couple weeks ago. That’s why you can have 7-1 Alabama ahead of 8-0 Auburn, and 4-3 California ahead of 7-0 Missouri. Cal has had blowout wins that counteract the blowout loses.

I plan on doing a whole bunch of things at the end of the regular season to examine Cal’s season. Maybe for the hell of it, I’ll run my numbers again using wins-loses like the BCS computers are required to do.

I randomly just checked, and I have WSU (who I predict will go winless in the Pac-10) #54 out of 120 in the country! It’s things like that make the Pac-10 the best conference in the nation (and Jeff Sagarin agrees with me).

Oh and I added Pac-10 bowl predictions at the bottom!

Top 25 Schools:

Rank Last week School Record Points OAAD DAAO SOS Rank SOS Pnts
1 1 Oregon 7-0 1.9394 21.72 -9.17 53 0.64
2 6 TCU 8-0 1.6056 10.77 -13.39 58 0.63
3 2 Boise State 6-0 1.6055 17.95 -8.90 47 0.68
4 5 Alabama 7-1 1.5559 7.42 -11.86 42 0.70
5 3 Auburn 8-0 1.5331 14.28 -3.93 20 0.81
6 9 Ohio State 7-1 1.5086 13.70 -11.18 57 0.63
7 8 Michigan State 8-0 1.3728 9.15 -9.96 65 0.61
8 22 Utah 7-0 1.3607 14.33 -4.85 81 0.52
9 26 California 4-3 1.3448 10.48 -7.87 9 0.93
10 15 Missouri 7-0 1.3163 10.59 -11.70 46 0.68
11 19 Nebraska 6-1 1.3075 11.67 -11.71 66 0.61
12 7 USC 5-2 1.2930 8.13 -5.01 16 0.84
13 11 Virginia Tech 6-2 1.2768 10.00 -8.28 56 0.63
14 28 Arizona 6-1 1.2767 4.64 -12.06 25 0.79
15 18 Wisconsin 7-1 1.2452 8.10 -6.07 22 0.79
16 4 Stanfurd 6-1 1.2435 13.18 -6.87 13 0.87
17 10 Nevada 6-1 1.2416 10.47 -3.13 49 0.65
18 13 S. Carolina 5-2 1.2188 6.80 -12.37 15 0.85
19 34 Miami (FL) 5-2 1.1878 8.77 -11.04 24 0.79
20 14 Oklahoma 6-1 1.1545 11.62 -5.92 17 0.83
21 12 Oregon State 3-3 1.1467 10.36 -3.70 1 1.11
22 16 LSU 7-1 1.1426 2.19 -8.73 31 0.75
23 32 Iowa 5-2 1.1190 8.13 -9.92 40 0.71
24 31 Hawaii 6-2 1.0411 11.84 -4.75 59 0.63
25 27 Oklahoma State 6-1 1.0133 18.20 -0.12 67 0.60

Dropped from rankings: Air Force, Arizona State, Florida, Florida State, Miss State, NC State

Pac-10:

Rank Overall Last week School Record Points OAAD DAAO
1 1 1 Oregon 7-0 (4-0) 1.9394 21.72 -9.17
2 9 26 California 4-3 (2-2) 1.3448 10.48 -7.87
3 12 7 USC 5-2 (2-2) 1.2930 8.13 -5.01
4 14 28 Arizona 6-1 (3-1) 1.2767 4.64 -12.06
5 16 4 Stanfurd 6-1 (3-1) 1.2435 13.18 -6.87
6 21 12 Oregon State 3-3 (2-1) 1.1467 10.36 -3.70
7 27 17 Arizona State 3-4 (1-3) 1.0017 5.85 -7.26
8 41 43 UCLA 3-4 (1-3) 0.7723 -4.07 -4.92
9 45 46 Washington 3-4 (2-2) 0.6939 1.88 3.41
10 56 66 Washington St 1-7 (0-5) 0.6115 -3.97 1.85

Top 24 Conferences (FBS and FCS*):

Rank Last week Conference Avg points
1 1 Pacific-10 1.1323
2 2 SEC 0.9777
3 4 Big Ten 0.8362
4 3 Big 12 0.8309
5 7 Mountain West 0.7403
6 5 ACC 0.7380
7 6 WAC 0.6947
8 8 Big East 0.5385
9 9 Conference USA 0.3755
10 10 MAC 0.3370
11 11 CAA* 0.3237
12 12 Sun Belt 0.2548
13 13 Missouri Valley* 0.2463
14 14 Big Sky* 0.2175
15 15 Great West* 0.2143
16 16 Southern* 0.2126
17 17 Ohio Valley* 0.1476
18 18 Southland* 0.1247
19 19 Big South* 0.1042
20 20 Northeast* 0.0878
21 22 Patriot League* 0.0839
22 23 Ivy* 0.0829
23 21 SWAC* 0.0753
24 24 Pioneer* 0.0626
25 25 MEAC* 0.0530

Pac-10 predicted finish:

Rank School Conf. Record Overall
1 Oregon 9-0 12-0
2 Stanfurd 8-1 11-1
3 Arizona 6-3 9-3
4 USC 5-4 8-4
5 California 5-4 7-5
6 Oregon State 4-5 5-7
7 Arizona State 3-6 5-7
8 Washington 3-6 4-8
9 UCLA 2-7 4-8
10 Washington St 0-9 1-11

This weekend’s predictions:

  • Arizona 29 – @UCLA 9
  • California 33 – @Oregon State 26
  • Stanfurd 43 – @Washington 22
  • @Arizona State 39 – Washington State 15
  • Oregon 46 – @USC 26

Bowl Projections!

  • BCS National Championship: Oregon v. TCU
  • Rose Bowl: Stanfurd v. Ohio State
  • Valero Alamo Bowl: Arizona v. Oklahoma
  • Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: Cal v. Texas (boring!)
  • Hyundai Sun Bowl: No Pac-10 team available
  • MAACO Las Vegas Bowl: No Pac-10 team available
  • Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: No Pac-10 team available

Three Pac-10 bowl tie-ins would go without a Pac-10 team with my current projection. The reason? Oregon to NC game opens a spot. USC isn’t eligible for the post season this year, but they are eligible to beat other teams hopes of bowl eligibility. And that’s it! I’m projected half of the Pac-10 finishing under .500, meaning they won’t be bowl eligible.

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