30
Sep
2010

NCAA Football Rankings – Week 4

So there are several interesting things to point out in my rankings this week.

  • There are no FCS teams in the top 25 anymore. And other than the Sun Belt, all of the FBS conferences are ranked above the FCS conferences.
  • The rankings are liking Pac-10 schools right now. I find it esp weird that Cal is ranked so highly. However, remember that my rankings don’t actually use wins-losses, but score differential. Furthermore, it gives a 3 point advantage to the visiting team, so in the formulas, Cal beat Arizona by 2 points.
  • There are two new columns in the rankings: OAAD and DAAO.
    • OAAD: Offense against average defense. For each team calculate the average number of points scored against them per game. Now for team A, look at each team they’ve played and ask, how many more points did A score than the average number of points scored against the opponent. Average this over all opponents to get the OAAD for team A. The more positive the better. So for example, Cal’s OAAD is 14.57, meaning on average, Cal scores 14.57 points more than the opponents’ defenses allow on average.
    • DAAO: Defense against average offense. For each team calculate the average number of point scored per game. Now for team A, look at each team they’ve played and ask, how many points less were scored against A than the average number of points the opponent scores. Average this over all opponents to get the DAAO for team B. The more negative the better. So for example, Cal’s DAAO is -12.28, meaning on average, Cal holds their opponents to 12.28 points less than the opponents’ offenses score on average.
  • Using these OAAD and DAAO numbers, plus the average offensive and defensive numbers for each team, I can predict the outcome of any game. After all the rankings, I’ve listed the predicted final standings in the Pac-10. Note the difference between these and the current rankings in the Pac-10. Interesting.

Click “continue reading” to see the rankings.

Top 25 Schools:

Rank Last week School Record Points OAAD DAAO
1 2 Stanfurd 4-0 2.5176 18.06 -11.50
2 3 Ohio State 4-0 2.2225 18.67 -7.44
3 4 Arizona 4-0 2.0050 13.17 -18.48
4 10 Nevada 4-0 1.6883 15.25 -3.50
5 7 Iowa 3-1 1.6147 13.89 -7.89
6 1 Alabama 4-0 1.5776 12.50 -13.69
7 30 UCLA 2-2 1.5650 1.27 -13.52
8 52 California 2-2 1.5607 14.57 -12.28
9 32 LSU 4-0 1.5407 6.01 -8.48
10 15 Miami (FL) 2-1 1.3212 12.97 -18.33
11 11 NC State 4-0 1.2991 12.34 -6.84
12 9 Oregon 4-0 1.2849 18.27 -11.81
13 12 Boise State 3-0 1.2512 12.90 -3.26
14 5 Virginia Tech 2-2 1.2317 5.52 -11.27
15 29 Kansas State 4-0 1.2265 6.74 -3.22
16 17 TCU 4-0 1.2096 16.79 -8.62
17 55 Auburn 4-0 1.1176 9.71 -6.61
18 24 Michigan 4-0 1.1154 12.94 -5.06
19 126 Missouri 4-0 1.0582 11.80 -9.80
20 40 Arkansas 3-1 1.0128 8.70 -9.78
21 33 Florida 4-0 1.0055 10.90 -14.13
22 31 Notre Dame 1-3 0.9784 2.88 -8.06
23 83 West Virginia 3-1 0.9733 -0.06 -11.94
24 144 San Diego St 3-1 0.9337 6.15 -10.48
25 16 S. Carolina 3-1 0.9036 8.90 -8.71

Dropped from the rankings: Fresno State, Penn State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, James Madison, Temple, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, FIU, Rutgers, Central Michigan

Pac-10:

Rank Overall Last week School Record Points OAAD DAAO
1 1 2 Stanfurd 4-0 (1-0) 2.5176 18.06 -11.50
2 3 4 Arizona 4-0 (1-0) 2.0050 13.17 -18.48
3 7 30 UCLA 2-2 (0-1) 1.5650 1.27 -13.52
4 8 52 California 2-2 (0-1) 1.5607 14.57 -12.28
5 12 9 Oregon 4-0 (1-0) 1.2849 18.27 -11.81
6 27 28 Arizona State 2-2 (0-1) 0.8499 12.78 -13.91
7 32 43 Oregon State 1-2 (0-0) 0.8217 7.09 -4.20
8 63 107 USC 4-0 (1-0) 0.5176 7.24 -5.83
9 133 148 Washington St 1-3 (0-1) 0.2333 -3.46 2.48
10 139 146 Washington 1-2 (0-0) 0.2161 6.69 4.48

Top 24 Conferences (FBS and FCS*):

Rank Last week Conference Avg points
1 1 Pacific-10 1.1572
2 2 SEC 0.8821
3 3 Big Ten 0.8448
4 6 ACC 0.7107
5 5 Big 12 0.6698
6 4 WAC 0.5838
7 9 Mountain West 0.5422
8 7 Big East 0.5058
9 8 MAC 0.4277
10 13 Conference USA 0.4041
11 12 CAA* 0.3339
12 11 Sun Belt 0.2950
13 10 Big Sky* 0.2522
14 14 Southern* 0.2439
15 15 Missouri Valley* 0.2321
16 21 Big South* 0.2102
17 18 Great West* 0.1779
18 17 Ohio Valley* 0.1721
19 19 Northeast* 0.1533
20 22 Southland* 0.1379
21 20 Pioneer* 0.1222
22 16 MEAC* 0.1129
23 23 Patriot League* 0.0965
24 24 Ivy* 0.0807
25 25 SWAC* 0.0735

Pac-10 predicted finish

Rank School Conf. Record Overall
1 Oregon 9-0 12-0
2 Stanford 8-1 11-1
3 Arizona 7-2 10-2
4 California 6-3 8-4
5 Arizona State 5-4 7-5
6 USC 4-5 7-5
7 UCLA 3-6 5-7
8 Oregon State 2-7 3-9
9 Washington 1-8 2-10
10 Washington St 0-9 1-11
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